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How Many Left In 2023?


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#1 mbolt998

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 08:06 AM

I plotted this graph just over a year ago:

 

https://www.theminif...left/?p=3748819

 

The data at that time went up to 2022. I downloaded it again today and it goes up to 2023. So what's changed? Here are the differences. The graph shows, for each year, how many more (or fewer) cars are licensed or SORN. In theory each year should sum to zero as cars move between the two categories.

 

Attached File  deltas.png   20.42K   9 downloads

 

Interpretation:

 

Lots of cars between 1979 and 1982 seem to be back on the road, where they belong. This is excellent news.

 

There are actually 51 new cars between 1980-1982 that have appeared from nowhere. These were presumably cars that were never officially SORNed, just forgotten about.

 

This has also happened a bit in some of the earlier years. 14 new 1966 cars out of nowhere for example. Since many cars that age will have been completely rebuilt (at least once) I'm a bit suspicious that some people may be convincing the DVLA to re-register newer cars as older ones since they are more valuable.

 

Moving into the late 80s and early 90s the situation is less encouraging. Cars are coming off the road. We must try harder! Note that in UK cars older than 40y (i.e. 1984) have Historic status which means free road tax and some other benefits. Some of these SORNed newer cars will be being kept in good condition, just licensed intermittently to save money.

 

Here is the 2023 graph of absolute numbers:

 

Attached File  2023.png   22.42K   10 downloads



#2 84 City E

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 10:18 AM

Interesting reading the figures. I can confirm that our mini was taken off the road in by its previous owner in 1992 and sat in a barn until earlier this year when we sorn'ed it whilst i do the repairs needed, makes sense that cars can appear from nowhere



#3 Chris1275gt

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 10:55 AM

I wonder why there is a blip with the 75 cars?

#4 mbolt998

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 11:56 AM

I wonder why there is a blip with the 75 cars?

Yes, weird. Also 79 seems to be a good year compared to 78.



#5 Mr.greenPullover

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 01:33 PM

Here is the 2023 graph of absolute numbers:

Thank You for the update! Might You tell us the absolute numbers for licenced and SORN Minis for 2023 as I'm bad at adding bars together? ;)


Edited by Mr.greenPullover, 17 September 2024 - 01:36 PM.


#6 Ethel

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 01:46 PM

Call me cynical, but I wonder how '75 correlates to the introduction of SORN and Historic Vehicle tax exemption?

 

Imports, especially from Japan, will likely account for at least some of that licenced SORN discrepancy.



#7 mbolt998

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 01:58 PM

 

Here is the 2023 graph of absolute numbers:

Thank You for the update! Might You tell us the absolute numbers for licenced and SORN Minis for 2023 as I'm bad at adding bars together? ;)

 

Year Licensed SORN
1959 36 16
1960 63 44
1961 70 41
1962 104 82
1963 200 121
1964 213 129
1965 210 105
1966 225 97
1967 236 121
1968 259 143
1969 200 118
1970 142 109
1971 177 139
1972 222 219
1973 69 50
1974 123 113
1975 390 459
1976 75 77
1977 13 21
1978 141 246
1979 1018 1597
1980 927 1595
1981 487 1009
1982 474 1161
1983 242 1572
1984 275 1596
1985 319 1910
1986 323 1925
1987 362 2143
1988 444 2603
1989 831 3901
1990 737 3298
1991 712 3077
1992 546 2658
1993 637 2492
1994 671 2134
1995 576 1769
1996 558 1494
1997 477 1163
1998 657 1292
1999 555 999
2000 839 1459
2001 263 443
2002 5 8
2003 2 3
2004 1 0
2005 0 1
2006 1 0
2017 1 0



#8 Mr.greenPullover

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 04:15 PM

O_O pardon me English! 

The total amount would have been enough for me :shy:

 

So 16,078 licenced and 45,752 SORN... ;D

 

I find it astonishing that there seams to be a Mini first registered in 2017... in germany this would be absolutely impossible. As far as I'm aware here it was already impossible in 2001, thanks to some legislation changes.

 

By the way in germany there are about 8,400 Minis still registered - sadly there is no such thing as SORN over here...
 


Edited by Mr.greenPullover, 17 September 2024 - 04:30 PM.


#9 mbolt998

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 04:32 PM

O_O pardon me English! 

The total amount would have been enough for me :shy:

 

So 16,078 licenced and 45,752 SORN... ;D

 

I find it astonishing that there seams to be a Mini first registered in 2017... in germany this would be absolutely impossible. As far as I'm aware here it was already impossible in 2001, thanks to some legislation changes.

 

By the way in germany there are about 8,400 Minis still registered - sadly there is no such thing as SORN over here...
 

2017 could just be a mistake-- a BMW MINI being misclassified or something. There are also some in there going back to way before 1959 which are probably Morris Minors or a different kind of Austin Seven. BL/BMC's confusing nomenclature doesn't help!



#10 gazza82

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Posted 17 September 2024 - 04:42 PM

If the car has been off the road for a long time and not on the DVLA system when it is given a new reg is appears under that year, not the manufactured/first registered year.

And DVLA data is full of errors.

There are even differences between the Vehicle Enquiry results and the MOT database. One of our Club's cars appears correctly on the former but as a Lambretta on the mot system ... same reg.

All these exports should also be treated "with a pinch of salt" ....

#11 mab01uk

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Posted 18 September 2024 - 03:49 PM


Lots of cars between 1979 and 1982 seem to be back on the road, where they belong. This is excellent news.

 

There are actually 51 new cars between 1980-1982 that have appeared from nowhere. These were presumably cars that were never officially SORNed, just forgotten about.

 

This has also happened a bit in some of the earlier years. 14 new 1966 cars out of nowhere for example. Since many cars that age will have been completely rebuilt (at least once) I'm a bit suspicious that some people may be convincing the DVLA to re-register newer cars as older ones since they are more valuable.

 

Moving into the late 80s and early 90s the situation is less encouraging. Cars are coming off the road. We must try harder! Note that in UK cars older than 40y (i.e. 1984) have Historic status which means free road tax and some other benefits. Some of these SORNed newer cars will be being kept in good condition, just licensed intermittently to save money.

 

 

Many of these Minis would probably have been off road and unlicenced before the SORN rules came in some years ago. Then the early 1980's Minis have just reached the point where 'Historic' 40 year tax exemption status can now be applied for. This involves briefly taxing the car (free) at a post office which means the DVLA then issue a new V5c logbook with 'Historic' as the taxation class. (MOT exempt and insurance is not needed to do this step).  If the owner has no plans to insure the car or commence a restoration immediately the Mini then has to be SORNed and therefore appears on the DVLA records  as a new taxed/licensed or SORNed classic vehicle.

I have recently done exactly this process so the Minis involved would have appeared 'out of nowhere' in the latest figures briefly taxed (for free as historic) and then Sorned on the database. If you don't Sorn after the new Historic V5c arrives in post from DVLA,...a few weeks later a letter will arrive from the Motor Insurance Database saying you must insure the vehicle in the next couple of weeks or declare SORN online....OR if not you will be fined!


Edited by mab01uk, 18 September 2024 - 03:59 PM.


#12 mbolt998

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Posted 18 September 2024 - 04:35 PM


 

Many of these Minis would probably have been off road and unlicenced before the SORN rules came in some years ago. Then the early 1980's Minis have just reached the point where 'Historic' 40 year tax exemption status can now be applied for. This involves briefly taxing the car (free) at a post office which means the DVLA then issue a new V5c logbook with 'Historic' as the taxation class. (MOT exempt and insurance is not needed to do this step).  If the owner has no plans to insure the car or commence a restoration immediately the Mini then has to be SORNed and therefore appears on the DVLA records  as a new taxed/licensed or SORNed classic vehicle.

I have recently done exactly this process so the Minis involved would have appeared 'out of nowhere' in the latest figures briefly taxed (for free as historic) and then Sorned on the database. If you don't Sorn after the new Historic V5c arrives in post from DVLA,...a few weeks later a letter will arrive from the Motor Insurance Database saying you must insure the vehicle in the next couple of weeks or declare SORN online....OR if not you will be fined!

 

 

That's interesting! I only got the new Historic V5C after my car was actually ready to go back on the road, so I insured it immediately anyway. I did SORN my car in 1998 or so (which IIRC was soon after the SORN rules came in) but I doubt it was on the DVLA computers until I got the V5C (about a year and a half ago). It crashed their computer whenever I tried to do it online and I had to phone them up, but they did seem to have some record of it which they found eventually. Maybe on an older system. Was a bit of a challenge for me too because I had to remember what the address was on the old V5 (which I had lost). Found my old flat where I was living at the time on Google Maps and got the address that way :)

 

I suspect that they went to some new computer system at some point and didn't bother to transfer older cars that were SORNed. This may have coincided with some new version of the V5. I would not be surprised if my own car suddenly popped up in this data out of nowhere when I got that new V5C.

 

I also noticed that after I got the new V5C I can now put my number plate on websites like Euro Car Parts and it knows what I'm talking about. That didn't work before.



#13 mab01uk

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Posted 18 September 2024 - 06:20 PM

This old TMF thread linked below explains the Historic V5c application process in more detail (even if the car is off road, awaiting restoration, without MOT and not currently insured)....but note the Post Office contract with the DVLA was renewed in 2024 so can still be done at a local Post Office who do car tax applications.

 

Dvla Historic Road Tax @ 40 years through The Post Office:-

https://www.theminif...he-post-office/


Edited by mab01uk, 18 September 2024 - 06:23 PM.


#14 Spider

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Posted 18 September 2024 - 07:26 PM

I've moved this over to Chat, while it's been an interesting read, it's not technical in nature.

 

Can someone explain o the uninitiated (me !) what SORN is ?  I don't think we have that here (Aust).

 

You're also lucky that you are able to free look up these wonderful statistics, this kind of information is quite off limits here.



#15 smurfomatic

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Posted 18 September 2024 - 08:12 PM

SORN - statutary off road notification. Basically telling the DVLA that the car is not being used (on public roads at least) so they don't come after you for not paying vehcile duty or MOT expiring.






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