20 replies to this topic

[mbolt998]

I'm sure everyone has seen http://howmanyleft.co.uk. Great site but hard to add up the data across all the different Mini makes and models. Anyway so I downloaded the same data and messed around and here it is. How many Minis (of any kind but obviously excluding BMWs) left in UK per year of manufacture. The results are stacked so the total height of each column is the total number of cars, licensed + SORN, for each year.

 

There are a few with dates before 1959. Maybe incorrectly registered Morris Minors. Or just other errors. And a few apparently after 2000-- also registration errors. There are another 11170 cars in there where the year of manufacture is unknown.

 

The grand total including those unknown ones is 23368 licensed, 49762 SORN making 73130 altogether. Peak of production was around 100,000 per year.

 

(Note: have edited this thanks to Mr.greenPullover who saw that my original numbers were complete bobbins. I found the bug and I think these are the right ones)

 

Attached Files

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Edited by mbolt998, 26 July 2023 - 12:56 PM.

[mab01uk]

Quite a few classic Minis were sold and registered after 2000, a few 51 reg 2001 examples below.

 

For reference the now sought after first BMW R50 MINI's were 'Y' Reg:-

https://miniyregister.co.uk/

 

https://www.rwclassi...miles-from-new/

 

 

https://www.rwclassi...miles-from-new/

 

 

Edited by mab01uk, 26 July 2023 - 07:58 AM.

[mab01uk]

You might also be interested in this old TMF thread linked below from 2009.....

 

The Number Of Classic Minis Still On The Road In GB?

https://www.theminif...the-road-in-gb/

Edited by mab01uk, 26 July 2023 - 08:00 AM.

[mbolt998]

Quite a few classic Minis were sold and registered after 2000, a few 51 reg 2001 examples below.

 

The year I'm using is "year of manufacture". I think they do have a year of first registration in there too.

[JDMRoverMini]

So only 5198 total classic minis on the road in the UK. That seems so low. Crazy stats. Thanks for sharing though.

[mbolt998]

So only 5198 total classic minis on the road in the UK. That seems so low. Crazy stats. Thanks for sharing though.

 2016 of those aren't really on the road but rotting in people's dad's garages. However, when you look at how many are still around from the 1960s I predict the total may stay fairly constant from now on.

[imack]

I bet a fair few of those early 70's minis remaining on the road are late cars with chassis plate and reg plate swaps!

[Mr.greenPullover]

I'm sure everyone has seen http://howmanyleft.co.uk. Great site but hard to add up the data across all the different Mini makes and models. [...]

The grand total including those unknown ones is 3182 licensed, 2016 SORN making 5198 altogether.

 

I agree the site is a bit confusing but miles better than what we get here in germany, but I have to disagree to the numbers...

 

So only 5198 total classic minis on the road in the UK. That seems so low.

It's seems very low, as it means that about 2/3 of all Minis that are still on the road in Britain would have participated at this year L2B - that feels wrong.

 

When I add up the numbers I end up with

 

~ 27,202 still "on the road" and

~ 52.345 SORN.

 

How I calculated that numbers?

 

Let me showcase this for AUSTIN

 

- First I go to the A-Z index and open all manufacturers I know produced Minis or sound mildly British in new tabs.

- Then I look if there are MINI related categories in it - at AUSTIN there are AUSTIN MINI and AUSTIN SEVEN - or close the tab

- in most of those categories there are subcategories like from AUSTIN MINI 850 to AUSTIN MINI THIRTY AUTO

- But there is always also a link for "all AUSTIN MINI models combined"

- So I have to tabs for AUSTIN MINI and AUSTIN SEVEN

- then I add up the numbers: 7.7k licensed and 19k SORN for AUSTIN MINI and 2.4k and 519 SORN for AUSTIN SEVEN

 

I found:

AUSTIN MINI                  7.7k and 19k SORN

AUSTIN SEVEN             2.4k and 519

AUSTIN MORRIS MINI   2.5k and 5.2k

LEYLAND CARS MINI   1.4k and 1.9k

MORRIS MINI                4.4k and 3.1k

RILEY ELF                    434 and 339

ROVER MINI                  7.9k and 22k SORN

WOLSELEY HORNET   454 and 245

 

I didn't find any Innocenti, Authi, IMA or whatever foreign Mini...

From production numbers I assume there could be up to 15% of that, but that is only a loose guess

 

As I want to learn something every single day, please correct me if I'm wrong... but I doubt I'm miles of...

[mbolt998]

 

I'm sure everyone has seen http://howmanyleft.co.uk. Great site but hard to add up the data across all the different Mini makes and models. [...]

The grand total including those unknown ones is 3182 licensed, 2016 SORN making 5198 altogether.

 

I agree the site is a bit confusing but miles better than what we get here in germany, but I have to disagree to the numbers...

 

So only 5198 total classic minis on the road in the UK. That seems so low.

It's seems very low, as it means that about 2/3 of all Minis that are still on the road in Britain would have participated at this year L2B - that feels wrong.

 

When I add up the numbers I end up with

 

~ 27,202 still "on the road" and

~ 52.345 SORN.

 

How I calculated that numbers?

 

Let me showcase this for AUSTIN

 

- First I go to the A-Z index and open all manufacturers I know produced Minis or sound mildly British in new tabs.

- Then I look if there are MINI related categories in it - at AUSTIN there are AUSTIN MINI and AUSTIN SEVEN - or close the tab

- in most of those categories there are subcategories like from AUSTIN MINI 850 to AUSTIN MINI THIRTY AUTO

- But there is always also a link for "all AUSTIN MINI models combined"

- So I have to tabs for AUSTIN MINI and AUSTIN SEVEN

- then I add up the numbers: 7.7k licensed and 19k SORN for AUSTIN MINI and 2.4k and 519 SORN for AUSTIN SEVEN

 

I found:

AUSTIN MINI                  7.7k and 19k SORN

AUSTIN SEVEN             2.4k and 519

AUSTIN MORRIS MINI   2.5k and 5.2k

LEYLAND CARS MINI   1.4k and 1.9k

MORRIS MINI                4.4k and 3.1k

RILEY ELF                    434 and 339

ROVER MINI                  7.9k and 22k SORN

WOLSELEY HORNET   454 and 245

 

I didn't find any Innocenti, Authi, IMA or whatever foreign Mini...

From production numbers I assume there could be up to 15% of that, but that is only a loose guess

 

As I want to learn something every single day, please correct me if I'm wrong... but I doubt I'm miles of...

 

 

Thanks! I think I'm missing the SEVENs. My current criteria are:

 

Make in any of AUSTIN, AUSTIN MORRIS, LEYLAND CARS MINI, MORRIS, ROVER, and Model contains "MINI" but not "MINOR" or "METRO".

 

I was deliberately excluding the Hornets and Elves. Sorry. But I don't think there are that many :)

 

I will add SEVEN and try to make sense of any further inconsistencies then post another graph.

[mbolt998]

As I want to learn something every single day, please correct me if I'm wrong... but I doubt I'm miles of...
 

 

 

I have found the bug. Thanks again for checking! These are the current numbers:

Unknown year: 6798 licensed 4372 SORN 11170 total
Total 23368 licensed, 49762 sorn, 73130 altogether.

 

These look much closer to yours. I also added in the SEVENs (but not the AUSTIN A30 SEVENs). They don't make that much difference though as you would expect. I edited the post at the top because not everyone will bother reading this far.

 

It turns out most cars are from late 80s and early 90s. But 1979 and 1980 were still good years (my car is a 79). And those 1960s cars are rather rare.

 

 

 

[Mr.greenPullover]

Thanks again for checking!

 

You are welcome and Thank You for the analysis and the graph - very impressive indeed.

 

The numbers feels right and show the right picture!

In the end we would not be able to find every single Mini hiding somewhere.

Like how many Minis are in AUSTIN MODEL UNKNOWN?

[mab01uk]

I presume the Minis untaxed and stored away before SORN came in are not accounted for:-

 

"SORN isn’t needed if your vehicle was last taxed before 31 January 1998. If your vehicle's road tax ran out before SORN was introduced, you do not need to declare SORN or declare in any other way that it is off the road. Neither will you receive any tax reminders. It will only come under the SORN system after it is re-taxed and put back on the road for the first time."

Edited by mab01uk, 26 July 2023 - 02:27 PM.

[Vanman20]

Missing the commercials,pickups,estates,vans and 95Ls are usually listed separately

[Mr.greenPullover]

Missing the commercials,pickups,estates,vans and 95Ls are usually listed separately

 

No, they are included.

 

I presume the Minis untaxed and stored away before SORN came in are not accounted for:-

 

"SORN isn’t needed if your vehicle was last taxed before 31 January 1998. If your vehicle's road tax ran out before SORN was introduced, you do not need to declare SORN or declare in any other way that it is off the road. Neither will you receive any tax reminders. It will only come under the SORN system after it is re-taxed and put back on the road for the first time."

 

You are right, but I don't think it alter the broad picture.

Even if the ratio is changing from 2 SORN to 1 Mini licenced towards 3 to 1, those "SORN" Minis did not come back.

Overall the trend for the last decade is to loose about 5 to 10% every single year.

In the corona years the trend had flattened for the licenced Mini to about 2 to 3 % but the SORN numbers lowered accordingly, so yes, while corona more SORN Minis has gotten brought back to life, but the combined numbers sadly were stable between minus 5 to 10%...

 

[mbolt998]

So only 5198 total classic minis on the road in the UK. That seems so low. Crazy stats. Thanks for sharing though.

Actually more like 70k of which about 25k aren't SORNed-- I screwed up! Have edited the post at the top.