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Has The Electric Car Bubble Burst?


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#121 stuart bowes

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Posted 11 September 2023 - 11:27 AM

 

The electric car market isn’t for the average plebeian.. the roads should be for the rich only and subsidised by the working class.
Working class should get the bus
Freedom of choice is for the wealthy only


This is the nub of it. Motoring was initially only for the wealthy, before Austin, Ford and others enabled motoring to be classless and accessible to most folk. History is repeating itself and people will be priced out of car ownership.

 

 

to be fair though (just playing devils advocate and all that..) maybe isn't the worst thing in the world, more efficient travel, more people on bikes being healthy..

 

and with more working from home reducing the need for travel in the first place, more deliveries instead of using the high street (electric vans / drones) .. and travel becomes more of a leisure related issue anyway..

 

if roads are safer and E bikes and Escooters are more regulated and fully legalised as well that will help

 

it's a much cleaner vision of the future  than roads all blocked up with cars belching out fumes surely everyone has to admit

 

and as I think it was Jay Leno who was saying on that top gear interview, it doesn't mean 'real' cars go away, it means we keep them just for a bit of fun..  obviously there can still be racetracks and go kart tracks and stuff for entertainment purposes.  the fuel use and carbon emmissions on that scale wouldn't be a major concern

 

I always said when I had kids they would be straight out there working on the car with me as soon as they could lift a spanner.. but seriously I don't see the point now, they might as well stay indoors learning coding, or computer music production or whatever..  I will see if any of them are interested in having a go at cutting and welding when they get a bit older though, fabrication skills will always be handy and could still be an earner

 

the problem isn't so much one country doing it though, the problem is getting the whole world on board otherwise it's just a pointless virtue signalling exercise 


Edited by stuart bowes, 11 September 2023 - 11:32 AM.


#122 mab01uk

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Posted 11 September 2023 - 12:37 PM

With mini now saying they will stop building manual cars and only Automatics will be produced we may even have a generation who, not only have never seen a manual window, but driving a manual will be a lost skill/ talent...

 

I believe automatics became the norm/default choice in the USA many years ago. As an older driver now, I would always buy an auto as my main daily driver on our traffic jammed roads so I can understand non-motoring enthusiasts preferring/buying a good modern auto by default now. They have come a long way from the 850 Mini automatics that little old ladies preferred back in the day....


Edited by mab01uk, 11 September 2023 - 12:40 PM.


#123 Steam

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Posted 12 September 2023 - 01:33 AM

An true auto box is ok and given that vehicles want to drive themselves are probably the norm.
The problem comes with CVT which is an absolute lemon of a design. Poorly thoughtout, des8gned and built.

#124 unburntfuelinthemorning

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Posted 13 September 2023 - 01:02 PM

 

With mini now saying they will stop building manual cars and only Automatics will be produced we may even have a generation who, not only have never seen a manual window, but driving a manual will be a lost skill/ talent...

 

I believe automatics became the norm/default choice in the USA many years ago. As an older driver now, I would always buy an auto as my main daily driver on our traffic jammed roads so I can understand non-motoring enthusiasts preferring/buying a good modern auto by default now. They have come a long way from the 850 Mini automatics that little old ladies preferred back in the day....

 

A lot of people are too lazy or too ignorant to use a manual gearbox properly.  My step father was like this, he couldn't be bothered to change out of top for a hill or for overtaking, an automatic 'box would have selected the correct gear for him and saved the engine labouring at just above idle speed.  Why he never got an automatic I shall never know.  I this is something the Americans got right, manual boxes are just for enthusiasts.


Edited by unburntfuelinthemorning, 13 September 2023 - 01:03 PM.


#125 Steam

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 09:16 AM

Has The Electric Car Bubble Burst?
Well it has now. Can we assume the 2030 deadline to outlaw petrol cars was just a ruse by the government to test the waters and to try to generate an interest in electric cars.
What a joke.
If they must announce ridiculous timeframes they should at least have the balls to stick to them.

#126 Ethel

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 12:03 PM

 

The electric car market isn’t for the average plebeian.. the roads should be for the rich only and subsidised by the working class.
Working class should get the bus
Freedom of choice is for the wealthy only


This is the nub of it. Motoring was initially only for the wealthy, before Austin, Ford and others enabled motoring to be classless and accessible to most folk. History is repeating itself and people will be priced out of car ownership.

 

 

Electric cars may already be cheaper, you have to factor in running costs, service life & residual (end of life recycling) value.

 

Certainly, they currently cost more to manufacture & buy, but there are other usage models and have been for many years.



#127 humph

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 01:00 PM

 the 2030 deadline to outlaw petrol cars was just a ruse

 

Sorry to be the pedant, but the vast majority aren't clear on what the policy actually says, as reporting has been very poor. There has never been a deadline to outlaw petrol/diesel cars. In 2035 you will not be able to buy a NEW cars that run solely on petrol/diesel, but you can buy NEW hybrid cars, petrol or diesel.  These can be sold NEW for a further 5 years. You can continue to drive/buy/sell your used petrol/diesel cars indefinitely, nobody has talked of banning these anywhere yet.

 

As for electrification of cars, the current policies do not dictate that electric is the solution, all they state is that "new cars and vans can be sold if they have significant zero emission capability, which would include some plug-in and full hybrids". Study after study has concluded that battery EV is the way forward for various reasons, including that study after study has proved hydrogen isn't.

 

In reality, as was discussed at great length in the media this there are some major plus points to those that don't transition.  The 'unexpected' gain will be that the price of petrol/diesel will tumble due to dwindling demand, as the oil companies will end up with surplus as they'll continue to produce other products where petrol/diesel is a by product. Lots of talk of us becoming more like Cuba, where people keep hold of their much older cars and keep them running, maybe utilising newer technology i.e. engines to do so.  This is long overdue as our tendency to swap cars, and everything else we own, every few years has gone a long way to creating the mess we're in. 


Edited by humph, 22 September 2023 - 01:00 PM.


#128 Ethel

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 04:14 PM

It would have made more sense to extend the hybrid "transition" period. Use the technology to make incremental changes with increasing battery capacity.

 

5 years is no use in product development cycles. Even if we can go all electric, there will still be a huge market in other parts of the world.



#129 greenwheels

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 05:47 PM

What puzzles me about electric cars is that if they are so wonderful money ought to be able to be made from 'refuelling' them. In which case why  hasn't every petrol station invested in spaces to plug 'em in. None of the petrol station I frequent has done anything.



#130 Jon9379

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 07:10 PM

What puzzles me about electric cars is that if they are so wonderful money ought to be able to be made from 'refuelling' them. In which case why  hasn't every petrol station invested in spaces to plug 'em in. None of the petrol station I frequent has done anything.

Fuel stations won't want to loose space for vehicles sat charging for any period of time. While shopping car parks works well as the car is in the car park, why not charge it while your shopping.

Engineering explained did do a video a while ago that said it would take about 4 years for an electric car to become carbon neutral from production. As the battery technology isn't here yet and the batteries will only last about 4-5 years. So they are only carbon neutral at the end of their life.

I don't see why we couldn't have a system similar to the propane gas bottles, pay, drop an empty one off and pick up a full one. Just a universal battery that is automatically charged when swapped out of a car.  Essentially just as quick as filling the fuel tank, all be it your swapping the fuel tank out and in "at a fuel station".


Edited by Jon9379, 22 September 2023 - 07:11 PM.


#131 mab01uk

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 07:18 PM

Has The Electric Car Bubble Burst?
Well it has now. Can we assume the 2030 deadline to outlaw petrol cars was just a ruse by the government to test the waters and to try to generate an interest in electric cars.
What a joke.
If they must announce ridiculous timeframes they should at least have the balls to stick to them.
 

 

Although the change of policy announced by Rishi Sunak only brings the UK into line with the EU which has already changed the deadline to 2035.....

 

'Remainers' like Keir Starmer should therefore be very happy we are staying aligned with the EU rules they like so much! :lol:


Edited by mab01uk, 22 September 2023 - 07:19 PM.


#132 sonscar

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 08:10 PM

You may have been misled/misinformed/lied to by a Government?No news there then.Steve..

#133 humph

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 08:54 PM

 

What puzzles me about electric cars is that if they are so wonderful money ought to be able to be made from 'refuelling' them. In which case why  hasn't every petrol station invested in spaces to plug 'em in. None of the petrol station I frequent has done anything.

Fuel stations won't want to loose space for vehicles sat charging for any period of time. While shopping car parks works well as the car is in the car park, why not charge it while your shopping.

Engineering explained did do a video a while ago that said it would take about 4 years for an electric car to become carbon neutral from production. As the battery technology isn't here yet and the batteries will only last about 4-5 years. So they are only carbon neutral at the end of their life.

I don't see why we couldn't have a system similar to the propane gas bottles, pay, drop an empty one off and pick up a full one. Just a universal battery that is automatically charged when swapped out of a car.  Essentially just as quick as filling the fuel tank, all be it your swapping the fuel tank out and in "at a fuel station".

 

greenwheels, the major oil companies are investing massively, see the links below, but electrification will change their model completely, and the public’s idea of re-fuelling will also need to change. Most EV drivers will tell you that they spend no time sitting in their cars waiting to charge, they charge their cars whilst they’re busy doing something else; at work, shopping, sleeping. Successful adoption of EVs will need shopping centre car parks to have trickle chargers in a good proportion of their parking spaces so cars can be topped up whilst shopping, same for work locations etc. The rapid chargers have their place, mostly at motorway services, but we need extensive slow speed coverage everywhere else, park, plug in, go about your business, unplug & leave. This makes most of our traditional service stations redundant, and as has been said most don’t have the space to transition anyway, especially when ICE cars will be around for many many years yet.

 

https://www.shell.co...uZy1odWIuaHRtbA

https://www.shell.co...harging points.

 

https://www.bppulse....NEC-Birmingham#

 

A few points that need addressing in Jon9379s post too. 

 

How long do batteries last? The 5 year life is outdated at best, if it was ever the case. Most manufacturers offer an 8 year battery warranty, that’s 5 years longer than most do for their petrol/diesel engines or fuel system components. A lot of governments insist on 8 years at least, some longer. Most batteries are lasting 10-12 years or 200k miles, motors even longer. I was only reading about Teslas in the US doing 500-600k on their original batteries. They then go on to be used for other means once no good for cars.

 

https://www.evconnec...ar-battery-last

 

Time to carbon neutral. There are a lot of debunked reports on this, including an infamous Volvo one regularly quoted in the press, that claim very long periods. Volvo have since disowned their own report stating it’s incorrect. The current belief is that it takes between 17k-21k miles to reach carbon neutral in an EV. The move to LFT and solid state batteries, reducing the reliance on precious metals, is improving things further.
 

Finally on the propane gas type bottle scenario, this is already happening. Some of the, currently less known, brands are running this tech for cars and wagons.

 

 

Their are some serious challenges with where we are on EVs, mostly lack of motorway rapid chargers and other charging infrastructure. The numbers have increased massively but the governments own targets have all been missed, and we are currently way behind other countries.

 

 

 



#134 Ethel

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Posted 24 September 2023 - 03:09 PM

As I understand it the batteries don't stop working either. They just hold less charge for not as long - they could have a second life as overnight storage for solar power etc.



#135 Shooter63

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Posted 29 September 2023 - 09:22 AM

As this is the EV thread I thought I would relay what I saw yesterday.
At the moment I'm staying in a town where you need to cross a ford to get there, the ford is at the most 30mm deep, while having a fag on the footbridge watching the world go by an EV Kia approached got halve way down the ramp and stopped, the occupants had a look of horror on their faces, the car reversed off the ramp and was attempting what turned out to be a 86 point turn, once they had completed said turn they stopped more or less where I was standing so I asked the question, why did you turn round? The answer was a beaut, "We don't want to drive it through water incase we get electrocuted" now I could of said " no you'll be ok" and explained why but the little devil that sits on the left shoulder took over, so started to agree with all their fears, you have just got to love the human race.

Shooter




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