42 replies to this topic

[Guess-Works.com]

Here's the latest from the Guessworks data collection routines...
I chopped the top off the graph as there were some which made 13k+ which made it all look a little small...



Data collected from 1068 reported sales.

FYI.... 63% of classic minis for sale on ebay fail to sell.

[Nu2mini]

This is interesting stuff, but I'm a little suprised that late MPI's seem to carry such an apparent premium. I wonder if the figures are being distorted by the number of transactions. For example a high number of poor quality 70/80's cars would have a lower average value compared to a small number of better quality later cars.

[mk3 Cooper S]

I'll have a min priced 1960 for £100 please )

[sx_turbo]

how accurate is the information?

also i would imagine the prices would go up in the spring/summer,

i would also imagine that it would be affected according to the condition of the mini,

so i read the information as if in top qaulity condition expect to get around 5k, in ok condition expect between 1.5and 2.5, and in poor condition less than 1k

[Nu2mini]

Perhaps Guessworks can give us some more detail. I don't think the figures take any account of condition, I think they are just max min and average values. Hence my observation that a high number of poor condition 70's & 80's cars would pull their figures down.

[Juju]

Yeah, Guessworks, give us some n values and standard deviations!!

And then correct it for unequal sample size. And then do an analysis of variance...

The range is greatest with the middle-aged cars. Presumably indicative of rebuilt versus not rebuilt?

I'm surprised the mean value of the earliest cars isn't higher.

[MiniLuke]

FYI.... 63% of classic minis for sale on ebay fail to sell.

I would image that 63% of classic minis for sale on ebay are actually bought when a potential buyer visits to have a look and makes an offer for cash there and then rather than have the auction end properly.

[rustyminis]

I maintain a 1 owner 1964 26,500miles 850 mini and the lady who owns it has just had her agreed value updated.
Her mini is now insured for £9,250 due to its original unrestored condition.
So that so called chart cant be right.

Edited by rustyminis, 21 February 2011 - 05:43 PM.

[Juju]

I maintain a 1 owner 1964 26,500miles 850 mini and the lady who owns it has just had her agreed value updated.
Her mini is now insured for £9,250 due to its original unrestored condition.
So that so called chart cant be right.

Yes it can. She hasn't sold it. (or has she.....??)

[nibzy]

Plus he did put the bit about taking out the top part of the graph so it was readable- went up to 13k so your nine grander would be in that if like Juju said it had been sold in the date range specified for the figures.

[Bungle]

there seems to be a big bump in the graph for late 70's early 80's

i wonder if this is clubbys getting popular ?

[Jacko-lah]

Yeah, Guessworks, give us some n values and standard deviations!!

And then correct it for unequal sample size. And then do an analysis of variance...

The range is greatest with the middle-aged cars. Presumably indicative of rebuilt versus not rebuilt?

I'm surprised the mean value of the earliest cars isn't higher.

Send me the data, I'll stick in Mini-tab (Google it)

(That's my job - 6 Sigma Black belt)

[Jacko-lah]

I maintain a 1 owner 1964 26,500miles 850 mini and the lady who owns it has just had her agreed value updated.
Her mini is now insured for £9,250 due to its original unrestored condition.
So that so called chart cant be right.

Agreed value is based on what ? The so sayings of a mini club expert, in whose vested interest it is to inflate valuations? or the fact that to buy one retail in that condition would set you back that - given the number of apparently over optimistic prices I've seen from traders in pistonheads.

I've just read that and It's not aimed at anyone, just a comment on the classic car world in general over the last 40 years. Companies in the 1980's who coluded in groups to buy and sell cars to each other in order to inflate the prices, and then occasionally a rich but stupid punter would outbid them at auction.

And Clubs ? They want to preserve the cars, so if they value them higher than is realistic people will try to preserve them.

Anyway, I'd rather like to see the medians plotted rather than the mean, as that really removes the few extremes from the data.

Edited by Jacko-lah, 21 February 2011 - 10:11 PM.

[Shifty]

I maintain a 1 owner 1964 26,500miles 850 mini and the lady who owns it has just had her agreed value updated.
Her mini is now insured for £9,250 due to its original unrestored condition.
So that so called chart cant be right.

That "so called chart" has nothing to do with your point. If your customer had sold her mini on ebay then it would show on guessworks chart.

What it shows it the actual final value of the ebay auctions, its not weighted for condition it just simply shows the sale price.

Guessworks has put a lot of effort into this and I for one greatly appreciate it and I really don't think your comment was appropriate or valid.

[Nu2mini]

Guessworks has put a lot of effort into this and I for one greatly appreciate it and I really don't think your comment was appropriate or valid.

I would also like to thank Guessworks for his time compiling this and sharing it with us. It would be interesting to see if we could get anything else out of this data and would welcome a collaboration with Jacko-lah

Send me the data, I'll stick in Mini-tab (Google it)

(That's my job - 6 Sigma Black belt)

The subject can obviously be very emotive and I would like to avoid polarising the debate. We could avoid this by focusing on the data, developing the analysis and identifying any improvements. In simple taking a very scientific approach to it